New projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500
for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020.
🔓 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003550
🔗 https://mstdn.social/@ecosdelfuturo/111595667285104203
And that estimated sea level rise for low-emission scenarios is probably in the lower range of what will actually occur.
ℹ️ https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/953/2020/
Consider that this rise is inevitable (we cannot stop thermal expansion and melting inertia for the next few centuries) and only when it will occur is under discussion.
E.g., this paper with estimates of the dates for 2 m rise in a high emissions scenario. The date would only need to be pushed back for more optimistic scenarios, although given the non-linear nature of the melt, the estimates in the picture cannot be ruled out.
🔓 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acef3f
Source: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acef3f](https://media.mstdn.social/media_attachments/files/111/595/727/031/146/219/small/3f35712b08dcab07.png)
⬅️ El futuro de la población mundial
➡️ Hot model problem in climate science