An analysis of which is the best time to arrive based on various factors. This analysis is incomplete, you can find better ones if you dig on the internet.
Let's understand some terms first before the analysis:
In our country, the average time delay is 1 hour, so in most events, it usually takes one hour after the initial starting time before the event actually starts. I haven't experienced any events with high strictness levels yet, so I'm only going to talk about those with low strictness levels, such as casual gatherings and those with moderate strictness levels such as school events with more than one hundred people for attendance. I think the maximum time delay according to my experience is 2 hours on moderate strictness and 3 hours on low strictness.
The goal here is to devise a system that will allow me to arrive at the optimal time in any situation where there are plenty of seats left without having to wait for a long time for the event. Therefore, I'm neither going to be early nor late in my attendance but just enough so that I can secure the best spots without needing to wait for a long time for the event to start.
Usually, two hours before the starting time, there's barely any people and this is the worst time to attend even if there are a lot of best spots. However, in the case having to stand in a long line, then one needs to arrive 2.5 hours or earlier to be the first in line without needing to wait. One hour before the starting time, early birds start to arrive and take the best seats and 30 minutes after the starting time, the best seats will have been taken. The starting time is a factor as well, if the event starts at 6 AM or earlier, then people will tend to be more late. The earlier the starting time, the higher the time delay becomes for the specific event.
After considering all this factors, then we can say that when attending moderate strictness events, especially in our country, then one should arrive least 30 minutes after the starting time. On the other hand, when attending low strictness events, then one should arrive at least 1 hour after the starting time, especially if the event organizers and people attending don't seem too enthusiastic. When in doubt, attend only when they have said in the group chat "I'm on the way" or "I'm here, where are you?" because these people can have a maximum delay time of 4 hours.
Since there are way too many factors, the optimal time varies for each situation. One should assess every event to check for Plausibility and estimate the average Delay Time. If there is bad weather or bad news during the event, or if there's uncertainty during low strictness events, then the Plausibility goes down. If the Plausibility goes to extremely low levels, then it is wise not to attend the event especially if you come from far away, unless one of the event organizers arrives there first and notifies everyone.
The delay time then, is influenced by a multitude of factors: socio-cultural nationwide attendance norms, amount of attendees, starting time, strictness level, plausibility levels, enthusiasm of the group, and many other more factors I haven't thought about. It would be impossible to make perfect estimates in the first few times but with enough experience, it would be possible to make highly accurate estimates.
Therefore, in moderate strictness events, I believe the optimal time would be around 40 minutes after the start of the event, give and take 20 minutes depending on other factors. However, if there are many attendees and early time, the optimal time would be around 1 hour after the start, give and take 30 minutes depending on other factors. These are safe estimates, if one don't want to spend more time than necessary, they can attend at the upper bound, at least 1 hour after the event starts.
When picking the best seats, keep in mind that other attendees are not stupid, they will attempt to take the best seats before anyone else, especially if this is the second or third day after the event. Many attendees learn the best seats after the first day of the event and they will try to go early during subsequent days to take the best seats first. You must take this into consideration and try to arrive earlier in the subsequent events to account for the learning factor of the other attendees.
That's all I know for now. Thanks for reading.
"Those who are too early will be tired before the match even starts yet those who are too late can only satisfy themselves with leftovers, if there's any."
"They are like golden serpents, whose skin is said to be worth more than gold and whose flesh is said to be sweeter than honey, yet those who approach haphazardly, often ends up being ruthlessly strangled, paralyzed, and their hearts eaten by that very same serpent. Yet if necessity requires one to face such a serpent, one must use every ounce of their strength to survive and if they're lucky, they might even be able to turn the serpent into their most reliable ally."
"Repetition is the mother of all calculations."